https://www.alliancebernstein.com/abcom/Research_Library/AllSegments.htm
You need to register but a lot of stuff, including European Economics commentary from Chief European Economist, Darren Williams.
You can get into the site without registration if you do the following Google search and go to the top link in through the 'Cached' option (a fairly common 'backdoor' by the way), but I could read some articles but not others.
http://www.google.co.uk/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=alliance+berstein%2Bresearch&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&redir_esc=&ei=_C34TM-QD4yHhQf_87Rw#hl=en&expIds=17259,17291,25532,25907,27744,27868,27937&xhr=t&q=alliance+berstein%2Bresearch+library&cp=34&pf=p&sclient=psy&client=safari&rls=en&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&pbx=1&fp=b3b0150af0ff6fbc
There is an article from Darren called 'Can the Euro Survive' from March 2010, here:
https://www.alliancebernstein.com/Research-Publications/CMA-created-content/Institutional/Summaries/61173_EMUandTheCreditCrunch_CanTheEuroSurvive.htm
The page contains a link to full PDF document. Which is here:
Research Article Version
Thursday, 2 December 2010
Fidelity CityWire Archive Page (PDFs)
Fidelity's newsletter for Premium Account Holders is well-worth a read.
This link takes you to the index of all Citywire editions in PDF form
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/news-insights/newsletter-sign-up/citywire-newsletter.page?WT.mc_id=EDCCW0075
This link takes you to the index of all Citywire editions in PDF form
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/news-insights/newsletter-sign-up/citywire-newsletter.page?WT.mc_id=EDCCW0075
Anthony Bolton on China - Fidelity Webcast
Anthony Bolton - Investing in China, video 1-3 [HQ]
Anthony Bolton, one of the UK's best known investment fund managers returned to fund management in April 2010, the Chinese year of the tiger, to manage Fidelity China Special Situations PLC an investment trust focusing on the long-term growth potential of China.
In the first two episodes, Anthony looked at the sustainability of GDP growth and the practicalities of investing in a rapidly emerging market. In the final episode in this series, Anthony discusses the sectors the portfolio is currently invested in. He also talks about the Chinese industries in which we’re likely to see new world-class companies emerge from in the future.
For more details on Fidelity China Special Situations please go to https://www.fidelity.co.uk/china .
Please remember the value of an investment can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invested. Investments in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations and emerging markets may be more volatile than more established markets.
Fidelity does not give advice based on personal circumstances. If you're unsure of the suitability of an investment please contact a financial adviser.
In the first two episodes, Anthony looked at the sustainability of GDP growth and the practicalities of investing in a rapidly emerging market. In the final episode in this series, Anthony discusses the sectors the portfolio is currently invested in. He also talks about the Chinese industries in which we’re likely to see new world-class companies emerge from in the future.
For more details on Fidelity China Special Situations please go to https://www.fidelity.co.uk
Please remember the value of an investment can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invested. Investments in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations and emerging markets may be more volatile than more established markets.
Fidelity does not give advice based on personal circumstances. If you're unsure of the suitability of an investment please contact a financial adviser.
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=489658600169
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=493048655169
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=498926340169
James Kynge - Excellent Source of Info on China
James Kynge
Former FT Bejing Bureau Chief
An old friend from college used to be the BBC correspondent for China for over 10 years (she is now a newsreader on BBC News 24). I asked her last year for her opinions on China and she recommended that I check out 'one of her old buddies', James Kynge, who had been FT correspondent for China.
James has since moved on to editing a specialist newsletter 'China Confidential'.
His current profile can be found here:
http://www.ft.com/comment/columnists/james-kynge
James Kynge is editor of China Confidential, a research service on China at the Financial Times.
James has spent 16 of the last 28 years living and working in China, first as a journalist for the Reuters news agency, then for the FT as China bureau chief from 1998-2005. After that he headed up the Pearson group of companies in the People’s Republic until 2008.
His award-winning book China Shakes the World, published in 2006, was an international bestseller translated into 19 languages.
James is a regular speaker on China, with recent keynote addresses to investor conferences held by Goldman Sachs, UBS, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, CLSA and Standard Bank. Email James Kynge - -
Financial frailties might slow China’s growth
The investor delight that has greeted Beijing’s decision to remove the renminbi’s peg to the US dollar obscures a series of more worrying auguries for the country’s financial future
Are fears of China’s overheating overdone?
Though it is too early to call time on Beijing’s battle to tame its hot economy this year and forestall overheating, several trends suggest that the outlook for the second quarter is one in which cooling forms the dominant direction
China-US ties face challenge
The recent upsurge in trade with south-east Asia, Brazil, Africa and India may be enough to offset lost exports for Beijing, writes James Kynge
As a background to understand China, still an excellent source is his book:
'China Shakes the World' October 2006
You can get a great summary of it on C-SPAN, where there is a video of his presentation for his book tour given in Washington.
It is well worth taking the hour or so to get a really perspective insight into what is really going on in China.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/ChinaSh
James Kynge talked about his book China Shakes the World: A Titan's Rise and Troubled Future, and the Challenge for America, published by Houghton Mifflin. Mr. Kynge discussed how China's hunger for foreign jobs, raw materials, energy, and food will reshape world trade, capital flows, and politics. He argued that China's weaknesses such as environmental pollution, crisis in social trust, weak financial system, and faltering government institutions will have disruptive effects on the world. After his presentation he responded to audience members' questions.
Former FT Bejing Bureau Chief
An old friend from college used to be the BBC correspondent for China for over 10 years (she is now a newsreader on BBC News 24). I asked her last year for her opinions on China and she recommended that I check out 'one of her old buddies', James Kynge, who had been FT correspondent for China.
James has since moved on to editing a specialist newsletter 'China Confidential'.
His current profile can be found here:
http://www.ft.com/comment/columnists/james-kynge
James Kynge is editor of China Confidential, a research service on China at the Financial Times.
James has spent 16 of the last 28 years living and working in China, first as a journalist for the Reuters news agency, then for the FT as China bureau chief from 1998-2005. After that he headed up the Pearson group of companies in the People’s Republic until 2008.
His award-winning book China Shakes the World, published in 2006, was an international bestseller translated into 19 languages.
James is a regular speaker on China, with recent keynote addresses to investor conferences held by Goldman Sachs, UBS, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, CLSA and Standard Bank. Email James Kynge - -
Financial frailties might slow China’s growth
The investor delight that has greeted Beijing’s decision to remove the renminbi’s peg to the US dollar obscures a series of more worrying auguries for the country’s financial future
Are fears of China’s overheating overdone?
Though it is too early to call time on Beijing’s battle to tame its hot economy this year and forestall overheating, several trends suggest that the outlook for the second quarter is one in which cooling forms the dominant direction
China-US ties face challenge
The recent upsurge in trade with south-east Asia, Brazil, Africa and India may be enough to offset lost exports for Beijing, writes James Kynge
As a background to understand China, still an excellent source is his book:
'China Shakes the World' October 2006
You can get a great summary of it on C-SPAN, where there is a video of his presentation for his book tour given in Washington.
It is well worth taking the hour or so to get a really perspective insight into what is really going on in China.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/ChinaSh
James Kynge talked about his book China Shakes the World: A Titan's Rise and Troubled Future, and the Challenge for America, published by Houghton Mifflin. Mr. Kynge discussed how China's hunger for foreign jobs, raw materials, energy, and food will reshape world trade, capital flows, and politics. He argued that China's weaknesses such as environmental pollution, crisis in social trust, weak financial system, and faltering government institutions will have disruptive effects on the world. After his presentation he responded to audience members' questions.
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Crispin Odey's Comment
I always find Crispin Odey's comments worth reading. Here is a link to his latest post (Bolding are mine):
Markets obviously perked up in September but is this the beginning of a much longer run? It is certainly feeling like it.
Remember the scenario that we believe will unfold is further continuous aggressive easing using any means by the authorities which will not end until we have a sea of inflation and bond and currency markets which are screaming 'NO'.
We are still in the foothills on this journey. The weak employment numbers out of the USA and the continuing trade deficit with the emerging markets has ensured near unanimity in the USA amongst politicians and the Fed that the US dollar must be allowed to fall against these currencies. Given that the emerging markets are hanging on to their peg, this means giving these countries a totally inappropriate monetary policy. In a raging boom, interest rates remain at zero, whilst monetary conditions remain wildly lax.
This year the bears have always had their turn. However it seems so dangerous to fight the regulators when everyone is in agreement that inflation is preferable to deflation. A world in which interest rates remain at zero even as inflation rises and economic activity plods along is the perfect environment for the equity markets.
At present the emerging market theme has dominated returns. Since September of last year the wider market has fallen back even as the 'Nifty Fifty' have broken out. I have nothing against backing the emerging markets. They can only thrive. However, given that ultimately I see heavy inflation in the Anglo-Saxon world, cheap real assets which are currently in a bear market, still stand out because I am being paid by them to be patient.
30th September 2010.
Can be found at:
http://www.odey.com/OurManagers/outlook.aspx?manager=CrispinOdey
Markets obviously perked up in September but is this the beginning of a much longer run? It is certainly feeling like it.
Remember the scenario that we believe will unfold is further continuous aggressive easing using any means by the authorities which will not end until we have a sea of inflation and bond and currency markets which are screaming 'NO'.
We are still in the foothills on this journey. The weak employment numbers out of the USA and the continuing trade deficit with the emerging markets has ensured near unanimity in the USA amongst politicians and the Fed that the US dollar must be allowed to fall against these currencies. Given that the emerging markets are hanging on to their peg, this means giving these countries a totally inappropriate monetary policy. In a raging boom, interest rates remain at zero, whilst monetary conditions remain wildly lax.
This year the bears have always had their turn. However it seems so dangerous to fight the regulators when everyone is in agreement that inflation is preferable to deflation. A world in which interest rates remain at zero even as inflation rises and economic activity plods along is the perfect environment for the equity markets.
At present the emerging market theme has dominated returns. Since September of last year the wider market has fallen back even as the 'Nifty Fifty' have broken out. I have nothing against backing the emerging markets. They can only thrive. However, given that ultimately I see heavy inflation in the Anglo-Saxon world, cheap real assets which are currently in a bear market, still stand out because I am being paid by them to be patient.
30th September 2010.
Can be found at:
http://www.odey.com/OurManagers/outlook.aspx?manager=CrispinOdey
David Mc Williams: The Man who Brought on the EU Rescue of Ireland
One of a new generation of commentators/bloggers. Former Economist of with the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS and BNP, McWilliams is in main way a spokesman for the younger generation.
Using the full range of 'news media' including websites, blogs and also a TV presenter, re was credited with forcing Ireland into having to go to the EU for a rescue package.
His website can be found here:
This is an article from the Daily Mail which highlighted his role in undermining the Irish government's position in trying to survive without a rescue package:
Using the full range of 'news media' including websites, blogs and also a TV presenter, re was credited with forcing Ireland into having to go to the EU for a rescue package.
His website can be found here:
A fuller description of his 'CV' is here from his own website:
David Mc Williams is one of Ireland
He is an economist, broadcaster, bestselling author and most recently, he has brought economics to the national theatre with his one-man-show “Outsiders” – a unique partnership with the Abbey Theatre.
David also writes two weekly economics columns in the Sunday Business Post and the Irish Independent.
David first book “The Pope’s Children” was the best selling Irish non-fiction book in 2006, spending 52 consecutive weeks in the top five of the bestsellers. Described by the Sunday Tribune as “the definitive guide to the Ireland
David also wrote and presented the documentary “Addicted to Money” for ABC Australia, which was aired in four continents in winter 2009.
Between 2000 and 2006 David hosted the current affairs show “Agenda” on TV3, “The Breakfast Show” on Newstalk 106 and the topical chat show “The Big Bite” on RTE1. He has interviewed some of the most influential and thought provoking characters of our age, from Henry Kissinger to Mikhail Gorbachev and Hillary Clinton.
He was educated at Trinity College Dublin and the College of Europe Bruges, Belgium and before moving into writing and broadcasting he spent ten years in banking. First as an economist with the Irish Central Bank, then with the investment banks UBS and BNP.
Daily Mail 16th November 2010:
David McWilliams, a former Irish Central Bank economist and prominent commentator, said Ireland 's only card worth playing in this week's Brussels meetings was to admit defeat and stress that Ireland 's problems were Europe 's responsibility, thanks to the euro currency.
McWilliams said Ireland should agree to let the European Central Bank - which has full-time observers inside the Department of Finance in Dublin
That would keep the Irish banks from contaminating the bond market, easing the market turmoil for everyone.
'We need finally to be honest and say to our European colleagues that our banks are bust,' he said.
'No matter how much we bluff, that problem's not going to go away - and our problem is your problem. You have got to help us, because your problem could transfer from Ireland , Portugal and Greece to Spain and Italy
'Although it's not pleasant, we've got to defend ourselves. We've got to say we're in this euro together, so what are you going to do for us?'
The rise in yields across highly-indebted European nations has pushed the EU back into the depths of crisis management, after policymakers had spent their recent gatherings focusing on crisis
A Fist Full Of Euros
A neat Blog.
In its own words:
A Fistful of Euros is a Webzine and Weblog. Its purpose – as well as that of the other afoe-family blogs – is to provide a venue for informed commentary on European politics and culture from a pan-European perspective. We are writing about important developments from NATO to UEFA, from the EU to Eurovision. The “tagged” version of the last sentence might read like this – European politics, economics, culture, and current events, demography, literature, sports.
There are currently fifteen member-authors contributing to afoe who reside in nine European countries. We occasionally invite writers we appreciate to contribute as guest writers. Our contributors are keen observers of socio-economic developments, both on a European and a national level, who, in addition to their determination to contribute to an informed debate in the nascent European public sphere, have backgrounds in political journalism, audio-visual media, judicial advisory, think tanks, or academia.
We can not be positioned according to the common criteria and labels used to describe American politics and the (blogospherical) coverage thereof. While we could be generally described as “pro European”, we believe in the merit of informed debate regardless of the origin of a valid argument.
In addition to writing, we’ve also arranged the Satin Pajama European Weblog Awards since 2005.
A Fistful Of Euros was nominated for a Bloggie (Best Group Blog 2005), a Deutsche Welle Bob (Best English Weblog 2006), and a Koufax Award. We have been cited in several online and offline newspapers and magazines, among others, Foreign Policy Magazine and the Sunday Times.
The blog can be found at:
Simon Johnson: Former Chief Economist, Whistle-blower and Blogger
Simon Johnson is a very interesting commentator in that he is an ‘insider’ in a major international economic institution, (he was Chief Economist of the IMF until August 2008) who has been unusually outspoken in his criticism of mainstream economic policy and the ‘bailout’ in particular.
In May 2009 article, he wrote the article ‘The Quiet Coup in Finance’, which can be found here:
In the article he compared the situation in the US
To give a fuller bio on Johnson, to quote Wikipedia:
Johnson went on to expand the theme of ‘The Quiet Coup’ into a book ’13 Bankers:The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown’ (March 2010)
Simon Johnson is a co-founder and regular contributor to the Blog site ‘Baseline Scenario’ at:
Bloomberg Radio Interview (September 29, 2010)
A self-confessed member of the Jim Rogers Adoration Society
One of my best mates in the City ( present company excluded) is Chris Turner (ex-Equity & Law, ex-Morgan Grenfell, ex-Deutsche, ex- Morley and as of a month or so ago ex-Citigroup Alternative Investments).
Chris's background is that at University he studied Maths. While I, as I will bore you to death re-ieterating studied History.
I have relatively recently been taking a belated interested in Maths. Chris has taken an interest in History. As a typical 'ex-client' I called him up to talk about maths, and he ignored my questions and steered it on to History!
He said, 'Yes, I've been looking at history more and more recently. I was talking to a friend recently who studied history and it was really interesting. He said that all that stuff about the American Civil War being about Slavery is rubbish. It was all about Tariffs. The Northern Businessmen wanted to stuff the South with tariffs. It wasn't about Slavery at all.'
Chris would, rightly, pull me up if I said something stupid about Maths. And I had to pull him up on this point about history.
The fact is that during the American Civil War, several million men-and women, of course- rose up and went to war with several million others. 'Causation' is a serious subject that you study as a historian. And it is frankly rubbish to say that there was 'one cause' that caused the American Civil War. Every one of them had their own motives. If we cannot talk of several million different motives, it is at least clearly a misrepresentation to talk about ONE single motive driving all of them. For some 'Slavery' was an issue, for others it might have been something much pettier-maybe loyalty to or rivalry with a brother, after all this was a war in which often 'brother fought brother', quite literally.
All of which is a fairly long winded preamble to saying that no-one can have a monopoly on the truth, or anyone's single perspective capture the whole 'beast'.
But given all those caveats, there is one thing which I am going to put pretty fairly and squarely at the start of this blog:
I f there is one person's opinion that I value and put above most others, it is that of Jim Rogers.
In terms of many years of 'truth-seeking' and trying to sort the 'wheat from the chaff', this guy comes out head and shoulders above many, many market commentors in providing a clear 'road-map' for investment and a clear-sighted view at least 5 years ahead of the pack.
So fairly unashamedly I recommend following what this guy says, and reading, and re-reading, what he has wriitten and says.
Alabama-born, a 'History Major' at Yale, Rhodes Scholar in PPE at Oxford, Co-Founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, Associate Prof at Colombia School and veteran of two epic 'round the world' trips, you just don't find many more informed and thoughtful guys than this.
Full CV is at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
Unofficial Blog is at:
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
The closest to an official blog (mainly useful for up-and-coming speeches are here:
http://www.jimrogers.com/
In the jabba-jabba, hurley-burley and financial markets, it is often hard to focus. But if I get time to do so, I follow, read and re-read this guy.
And recommend him unashamably. Not a saint or infallible, and certainly not beyond 'talking his own book', but as humans go, in the investment world -as good as it gets
Chris's background is that at University he studied Maths. While I, as I will bore you to death re-ieterating studied History.
I have relatively recently been taking a belated interested in Maths. Chris has taken an interest in History. As a typical 'ex-client' I called him up to talk about maths, and he ignored my questions and steered it on to History!
He said, 'Yes, I've been looking at history more and more recently. I was talking to a friend recently who studied history and it was really interesting. He said that all that stuff about the American Civil War being about Slavery is rubbish. It was all about Tariffs. The Northern Businessmen wanted to stuff the South with tariffs. It wasn't about Slavery at all.'
Chris would, rightly, pull me up if I said something stupid about Maths. And I had to pull him up on this point about history.
The fact is that during the American Civil War, several million men-and women, of course- rose up and went to war with several million others. 'Causation' is a serious subject that you study as a historian. And it is frankly rubbish to say that there was 'one cause' that caused the American Civil War. Every one of them had their own motives. If we cannot talk of several million different motives, it is at least clearly a misrepresentation to talk about ONE single motive driving all of them. For some 'Slavery' was an issue, for others it might have been something much pettier-maybe loyalty to or rivalry with a brother, after all this was a war in which often 'brother fought brother', quite literally.
All of which is a fairly long winded preamble to saying that no-one can have a monopoly on the truth, or anyone's single perspective capture the whole 'beast'.
But given all those caveats, there is one thing which I am going to put pretty fairly and squarely at the start of this blog:
I f there is one person's opinion that I value and put above most others, it is that of Jim Rogers.
In terms of many years of 'truth-seeking' and trying to sort the 'wheat from the chaff', this guy comes out head and shoulders above many, many market commentors in providing a clear 'road-map' for investment and a clear-sighted view at least 5 years ahead of the pack.
So fairly unashamedly I recommend following what this guy says, and reading, and re-reading, what he has wriitten and says.
Alabama-born, a 'History Major' at Yale, Rhodes Scholar in PPE at Oxford, Co-Founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, Associate Prof at Colombia School and veteran of two epic 'round the world' trips, you just don't find many more informed and thoughtful guys than this.
Full CV is at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
Unofficial Blog is at:
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
The closest to an official blog (mainly useful for up-and-coming speeches are here:
http://www.jimrogers.com/
In the jabba-jabba, hurley-burley and financial markets, it is often hard to focus. But if I get time to do so, I follow, read and re-read this guy.
And recommend him unashamably. Not a saint or infallible, and certainly not beyond 'talking his own book', but as humans go, in the investment world -as good as it gets
About this blog
I hope to keep the various blogs in a logical order and easy to find order...
....but unfortunately is blog just ain't going to be one of them!
This is where I will be putting all the the research that I have been doing into various sources of strategy news, views and info...
By its nature it will be all very 'helter-skelter'....hopefully it will be useful for brainstorming ideas....
...maybe at a later stage we might organise the best of these sources into a more logical order...
...but that is for later...
...so for now let the 'storming begin!
....but unfortunately is blog just ain't going to be one of them!
This is where I will be putting all the the research that I have been doing into various sources of strategy news, views and info...
By its nature it will be all very 'helter-skelter'....hopefully it will be useful for brainstorming ideas....
...maybe at a later stage we might organise the best of these sources into a more logical order...
...but that is for later...
...so for now let the 'storming begin!
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