Sunday 2 January 2011

C-SPAN Direct View of US Congressional Testimony & Much More

One really excellent source that I've found on the web is C-SPAN, the official web TV service covering the activities of the US Congress. In addition, to the coverage of Congressional speeches and testimony, the service functions as a resource for research by Congressional Aides. There is also the confusingly named 'C-SPAN' Radio service (confusing because it is now a video service), which includes interviews with various experts on all sorts of topics. The whole service is searchable by names, and doing so reveals a whole range of different sources (eg. a BBC Newnight interview came up on one search).

A particularly valuable source which came up was the related service of C-SPAN Books. Basically, many authors of economics and current affairs books do book tours, which often involve 'swinging through' Washington. C-SPAN Books videos these and other book presentations. Although not quite 'sound-bite' size - they are generally 1 hour plus presentations - they are still a great summary of the authors views and conclusions - and less time-consuming than reading the actual book! Among some of the things I was able to watch was Hank Paulson being interviewed by Warren Buffet before Omaha Chamber of Commerce dinner guests on his book on how he saved the world's financial system, and various things by academic economists.

You can get into the service at this URL:

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/

The service includes BOTH VIDEOS AND TRANSCRIPTS - although I found the transcipt service a little hard to use at times, but still useful to have.

Here are some samples, all of which are worth watching in their own right.

Example of a Daily White House Briefing

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/WhiteHouseDailyBriefing1598





Status of US Economy
August 3 2010
Senate Budget Committee


http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/StatusofUS

Economists testified on the state of the U.S. economy, the impact of the recession, and prospects for economic recovery. They also talked about the size of the budget deficit, unemployment rates, the impact of stimulus spending, and the state of the housing industry.
2 hours, 9 minutes | 520 Views

Richard Berner, Chief Economist Morgan Stanley
Simon Johnson, Former Chief Economist of IMF, Prof. MIT Sloane Business School
Joel Naroff, Economic Consultant




Search on Bernanke
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/search-results.php?keywords=bernanke



http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/Jacksonv

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lectured an upper division economics class on the history of the Federal Reserve and explained the bank's dual role of promoting stability in the financial system and promoting economic policies to ensure maximum employment and price stability. He also responded to questions from the North Florida business and economics students from Jacksonville University, the University of North Florida, Rollins College, Stetson University, and the University of Florida.
45 minutes | 1,692 Views




http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/FutureofHou

Officials spoke at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation conference on housing finance issues. They focused on shifting trends in mortgage lending as well as foreclosures and mortgage modification programs for those who cannot afford their homes.
2 hours, 4 minutes | 393 Views

Bernanke only speaks for 14 minutes, but the experts he lined up nto speak after him, left you in no doubt of the scale of the mess out there. For example, the first speaker says whatever is done to alleviate reposessions the scale of repossessions is unlikely to drop much in the next TWO or THREE YEARS, and Adam Levtin Georgetown Law Professor sections describes what lies behind whole 'Robosigning' problem and what a mess it is - during the course of his explanation he is highly critical of the biggest US banks-and he mentions if house prices go down another 10% that HALF of US homowners will be 'under-water' ie. stuck with negative equity.



http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/RoleofFe





C-Span interview - One from C-SPAN 'Radio' (in fact video!)

David Malpass (Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary 1984-88, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State 1989-93) talked about his opposition to Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke's plan to buy $600 billion in additional U.S. Treasury bonds in order to boost the economy. He also responded to phone calls and electronic communications. Mr. Malpass is among a group of prominent Republican economists campaigning against Chair Bernanke's plan. Mr. Malpass participated from New York City. C-SPAN Radio's Nancy Calo read news headlines at the end of the program.





http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/OversightC

The Financial Stability Oversight Council held its second meeting for an update on mortgage servicing, foreclosure issues and votes on several matters related to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.


The Database is searchable by Person speaking showing all records of them speaking, for example this is for Ben Bernanke:

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/benbernanke

This is for Timothy Geitner

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/timothygeithner


Well worth having a look at.

Thursday 2 December 2010

Alliance Bernstein Research Library

https://www.alliancebernstein.com/abcom/Research_Library/AllSegments.htm

You need to register but a lot of stuff, including European Economics commentary from Chief European Economist, Darren Williams.

You can get into the site without registration if you do the following Google search and go to the top link in through the 'Cached' option (a fairly common 'backdoor' by the way), but I could read some articles but not others.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=alliance+berstein%2Bresearch&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&redir_esc=&ei=_C34TM-QD4yHhQf_87Rw#hl=en&expIds=17259,17291,25532,25907,27744,27868,27937&xhr=t&q=alliance+berstein%2Bresearch+library&cp=34&pf=p&sclient=psy&client=safari&rls=en&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&pbx=1&fp=b3b0150af0ff6fbc

There is an article from Darren called 'Can the Euro Survive' from March 2010, here:

https://www.alliancebernstein.com/Research-Publications/CMA-created-content/Institutional/Summaries/61173_EMUandTheCreditCrunch_CanTheEuroSurvive.htm

The page contains a link to full PDF document. Which is here:

Research Article Version

Fidelity CityWire Archive Page (PDFs)

Fidelity's newsletter for Premium Account Holders is well-worth a read.

This link takes you to the index of all Citywire editions in PDF form

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/news-insights/newsletter-sign-up/citywire-newsletter.page?WT.mc_id=EDCCW0075

Anthony Bolton on China - Fidelity Webcast

Anthony Bolton - Investing in China, video 1-3 [HQ]

3:37
Anthony Bolton, one of the UK's best known investment fund managers returned to fund management in April 2010, the Chinese year of the tiger, to manage Fidelity China Special Situations PLC an investment trust focusing on the long-term growth potential of China.

In the first two episodes, Anthony looked at the sustainability of GDP growth and the practicalities of investing in a rapidly emerging market. In the final episode in this series, Anthony discusses the sectors the portfolio is currently invested in. He also talks about the Chinese industries in which we’re likely to see new world-class companies emerge from in the future.

For more details on Fidelity China Special Situations please go to https://www.fidelity.co.uk/china.

Please remember the value of an investment can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invested. Investments in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations and emerging markets may be more volatile than more established markets.

Fidelity does not give advice based on personal circumstances. If you're unsure of the suitability of an investment please contact a financial adviser.


http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=489658600169

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=493048655169

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=498926340169

James Kynge - Excellent Source of Info on China

James Kynge
Former FT Bejing Bureau Chief

An old friend from college used to be the BBC correspondent for China for over 10 years (she is now a newsreader on BBC News 24). I asked her last year for her opinions on China and she recommended that I check out 'one of her old buddies', James Kynge, who had been FT correspondent for China.

James has since moved on to editing a specialist newsletter 'China Confidential'.

His current profile can be found here:
http://www.ft.com/comment/columnists/james-kynge

James Kynge is editor of China Confidential, a research service on China at the Financial Times.

James has spent 16 of the last 28 years living and working in China, first as a journalist for the Reuters news agency, then for the FT as China bureau chief from 1998-2005. After that he headed up the Pearson group of companies in the People’s Republic until 2008.

His award-winning book China Shakes the World, published in 2006, was an international bestseller translated into 19 languages.

James is a regular speaker on China, with recent keynote addresses to investor conferences held by Goldman Sachs, UBS, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, CLSA and Standard Bank. Email James Kynge - -
Financial frailties might slow China’s growth

The investor delight that has greeted Beijing’s decision to remove the renminbi’s peg to the US dollar obscures a series of more worrying auguries for the country’s financial future
Are fears of China’s overheating overdone?

Though it is too early to call time on Beijing’s battle to tame its hot economy this year and forestall overheating, several trends suggest that the outlook for the second quarter is one in which cooling forms the dominant direction
China-US ties face challenge

The recent upsurge in trade with south-east Asia, Brazil, Africa and India may be enough to offset lost exports for Beijing, writes James Kynge



As a background to understand China, still an excellent source is his book:

'China Shakes the World' October 2006

You can get a great summary of it on C-SPAN, where there is a video of his presentation for his book tour given in Washington.

It is well worth taking the hour or so to get a really perspective insight into what is really going on in China.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/ChinaSh

James Kynge talked about his book China Shakes the World: A Titan's Rise and Troubled Future, and the Challenge for America, published by Houghton Mifflin. Mr. Kynge discussed how China's hunger for foreign jobs, raw materials, energy, and food will reshape world trade, capital flows, and politics. He argued that China's weaknesses such as environmental pollution, crisis in social trust, weak financial system, and faltering government institutions will have disruptive effects on the world. After his presentation he responded to audience members' questions.

Sunday 28 November 2010

Crispin Odey's Comment

I always find Crispin Odey's comments worth reading. Here is a link to his latest post (Bolding are mine):

Markets obviously perked up in September but is this the beginning of a much longer run? It is certainly feeling like it.

Remember the scenario that we believe will unfold is further continuous aggressive easing using any means by the authorities which will not end until we have a sea of inflation and bond and currency markets which are screaming 'NO'.

We are still in the foothills on this journey. The weak employment numbers out of the USA and the continuing trade deficit with the emerging markets has ensured near unanimity in the USA amongst politicians and the Fed that the US dollar must be allowed to fall against these currencies. Given that the emerging markets are hanging on to their peg, this means giving these countries a totally inappropriate monetary policy. In a raging boom, interest rates remain at zero, whilst monetary conditions remain wildly lax.

This year the bears have always had their turn. However it seems so dangerous to fight the regulators when everyone is in agreement that inflation is preferable to deflation. A world in which interest rates remain at zero even as inflation rises and economic activity plods along is the perfect environment for the equity markets.

At present the emerging market theme has dominated returns. Since September of last year the wider market has fallen back even as the 'Nifty Fifty' have broken out. I have nothing against backing the emerging markets. They can only thrive. However, given that ultimately I see heavy inflation in the Anglo-Saxon world, cheap real assets which are currently in a bear market, still stand out because I am being paid by them to be patient.

30th September 2010.

Can be found at:

http://www.odey.com/OurManagers/outlook.aspx?manager=CrispinOdey

David Mc Williams: The Man who Brought on the EU Rescue of Ireland

One of a new generation of commentators/bloggers. Former Economist of with the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS and BNP, McWilliams is in main way a spokesman for the younger generation.

Using the full range of 'news media' including websites, blogs and also a TV presenter, re was credited with forcing Ireland into having to go to the EU for a rescue package.

His website can be found here:



A fuller description of his 'CV' is here from his own website:
David Mc Williams is one of Ireland’s leading economic commentators. He was the first economist to see that the Irish boom was nothing more than a credit bubble and one of the very few to accurately predict it would all end in a monumental crash with bank failures, negative equity and rising unemployment and emigration.
He is an economist, broadcaster, bestselling author and most recently, he has brought economics to the national theatre with his one-man-show “Outsiders” – a unique partnership with the Abbey Theatre.
David also writes two weekly economics columns in the Sunday Business Post and the Irish Independent.
David first book “The Pope’s Children” was the best selling Irish non-fiction book in 2006, spending 52 consecutive weeks in the top five of the bestsellers. Described by the Sunday Tribune as “the definitive guide to the Ireland we live in”. The Pope’s Children was the first in a trilogy and the related TV series “In search of the Pope’s Children” – written and presented by David won an IFTA in 2007. The Pope’s Children was followed by The Generation Game, which in 2007 predicted the 2008/09 crash and the fact that one generation would be left suffering negative equity for years. It also explored the redemptive economic power of the Irish Tribe scattered around the world. This book and subsequent TV series proved to be the catalyst to the Global Irish Economic Forum at Farmleigh in 2009. The final book in the trilogy “Follow the Money” was published in late 2009.
David also wrote and presented the documentary “Addicted to Money” for ABC Australia, which was aired in four continents in winter 2009.
Between 2000 and 2006 David hosted the current affairs show “Agenda” on TV3, “The Breakfast Show” on Newstalk 106 and the topical chat show “The Big Bite” on RTE1. He has interviewed some of the most influential and thought provoking characters of our age, from Henry Kissinger to Mikhail Gorbachev and Hillary Clinton.
He was educated at Trinity College Dublin and the College of Europe Bruges, Belgium and before moving into writing and broadcasting he spent ten years in banking. First as an economist with the Irish Central Bank, then with the investment banks UBS and BNP.


This is an article from the Daily Mail which highlighted his role in undermining the Irish government's position in trying to survive without a rescue package:



Daily Mail 16th November 2010:

David McWilliams, a former Irish Central Bank economist and prominent commentator, said Ireland's only card worth playing in this week's Brussels meetings was to admit defeat and stress that Ireland's problems were Europe's responsibility, thanks to the euro currency.
McWilliams said Ireland should agree to let the European Central Bank - which has full-time observers inside the Department of Finance in Dublin - take 'direct responsibility for the Irish banks, over and above the Irish government.'
That would keep the Irish banks from contaminating the bond market, easing the market turmoil for everyone.
'We need finally to be honest and say to our European colleagues that our banks are bust,' he said.
'No matter how much we bluff, that problem's not going to go away - and our problem is your problem. You have got to help us, because your problem could transfer from Ireland, Portugal and Greece to Spain and Italy.
'Although it's not pleasant, we've got to defend ourselves. We've got to say we're in this euro together, so what are you going to do for us?'
The rise in yields across highly-indebted European nations has pushed the EU back into the depths of crisis management, after policymakers had spent their recent gatherings focusing on crisis